Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
