Daily Killings in the nation Drop Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The mean figure of daily homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh government data. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that homicide figures might not indicate enhanced national security.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded over these months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest amount of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s heavily militarised efforts to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key components of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

But, security experts cautioned that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is notably true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not valid for estimating the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to properly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was also concerning because it might obscure periods when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and throughout the nation to express their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas remarked.